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REMOTE - Actuarial Forecasting Lead / Principal Actuary | C2H at TMS LLC, Remote

REMOTE - Actuarial Forecasting Lead / Principal Actuary | C2H at TMS LLC, remote. Contract. Apply with swipeandhired.

Job Purpose

The Principal Actuary is the senior individual-contributor specialist responsible for developing an integrated quantitative risk framework linking insurance-driven mobile-device claims, rapidly depreciating inventory assets, and future physical supply and disposition commitments. The role converts uncertainty in demand, recoverable value, and market conditions into actionable risk management decisions.
This is a hands-on modeling position with no direct reports. The successful candidate must combine credentialed actuarial expertise in insurance claims and exposures with practical experience valuing physically delivered forwards, optional-volume agreements, or comparable structured physical supply arrangements. Physical settlement is the immediate focus; potential cash settlement is a longer-term capability.

Primary Job Accountabilities / Responsibilities
Insurance claims and exposure modeling | 25%

Build and validate probabilistic claims-frequency, cohort, and exposure models using insured-device populations, claims history, policy conditions, product mix, device age, churn, and external drivers.
Produce calibrated time-phased demand distributions by client, program, model family, and horizon; distinguish insured claims incidence from repair, replacement, substitution, and SKU-level fulfillment outcomes.
Backtest assumptions, explain forecast error, and partner with Data Science to translate predicted claims into decision-ready forecasts.

Inventory valuation and financial risk | 25%

Model depreciation, residual values, recoverability, liquidation discounts, price volatility, liquidity, obsolescence, and concentration across mobile-device inventory.
Assess the joint impact of claims, future supply, secondary-market prices, repair yields, and inventory holdings using stochastic scenarios, Monte Carlo simulation, expected loss, tail-risk metrics, and stress tests.
Provide forward-looking risk estimates and evidence for Finance-owned monthly inventory reserve assessments while distinguishing economic-risk outputs from accounting measurements.

Physical contract valuation and risk transfer | 20%

Price and assess physically settled forward purchases and sales, structured supply or offtake agreements, volume-flex commitments, and deliverable purchase/sale options.
Model strike or delivery prices, optional quantities, exercise timing, specifications, grading, counterparty performance, delivery terms, and embedded optionality; compare contract economics to spot transactions and inventory carry.
Partner with Procurement, Treasury, Legal, and Accounting on risk controls and commercial structures; support exploration of cash-settled products only after adequate benchmark and governance capabilities exist.

Inventory portfolio optimization | 15%

Integrate demand and market-value simulations to evaluate risk-adjusted buy, hold, repair, transfer, sell, and hedge decisions at model-family and portfolio levels.
Quantify working capital, stockout exposure, purchasing premiums, expected depreciation, and tail-risk tradeoffs to propose practical exposure limits and hedging thresholds.

Technical modeling and governance | 10%

Write reproducible Python and SQL models and document data lineage, parameters, validation, backtesting, assumption changes, and model limitations.
Coordinate with the Forecasting Lead on integrated work-product quality; retain ownership of actuarial methodology, assumptions, and specialist model judgments.

Cross-functional leadership and capability development | 5%
Establish common risk terminology, influence planning and procurement decisions without direct authority, and help develop the enterprise inventory-risk methodology.
Communicate complex probability and valuation findings to Supply Chain, Finance, Actuarial, Risk, and executive stakeholders.
Management Responsibility

Individual contributor; no direct or indirect people-management responsibility. Serves as the senior technical authority for actuarial and risk valuation methodology, mentors colleagues, and may coordinate cross-functional working groups.

Financial Responsibility

No independent purchase, trade, or reserve-approval authority. Develops quantitative recommendations influencing inventory working capital, economic risk limits, contract valuation, and reserve inputs; Procurement, Treasury, Legal, Risk, and Finance retain approval authorities.

Required Experience, Skills, and Knowledge

Hold an active professional actuarial credential (ACAS, FCAS, ASA, FSA, or recognized international actuarial equivalent). A CERA designation alone does not replace the base actuarial credential.
Demonstrated hands-on professional experience developing or materially validating insurance claims-frequency, exposure-based, or comparable insurance predictive-risk models.
Demonstrated hands-on experience valuing or pricing physically delivered forward, offtake, volume-flex, commodity, or asset supply contracts with meaningful delivery obligations or embedded optionality; theoretical coursework alone is insufficient.
8+ years of relevant experience spanning actuarial modeling, enterprise or asset risk, physical-market contract economics, and quantitative decision support.
Bachelor's degree in actuarial science, statistics, mathematics, quantitative finance, economics, engineering, or a closely related discipline.
Advanced stochastic simulation, financial risk modeling, calibration, sensitivity analysis, tail-risk measurement, and evaluation of correlated exposure.
Strong hands-on Python and SQL proficiency; ability to design models, independently inspect model code, and explain methods and commercial implications.
Demonstrated ability to work with incomplete market data, communicate uncertainty, and navigate cross-functional decisions with strong ethical judgment.

Preferred Experience, Skills, and Knowledge

CERA or advanced enterprise-risk/financial-risk credential in addition to a base actuarial credential.
Experience in mobile devices, electronics resale, inventory financing, physical commodities, or another market with steep depreciation and limited liquidity.
Experience with risk-adjusted optimization, supply chain planning, repair operations, or secondary-market pricing.
Familiarity with inventory valuation accounting and derivative accounting review processes, while recognizing Finance and Accounting as decision owners.
Experience implementing governed enterprise quantitative models and collaborating with commercial supply or procurement teams.

Measures of Success

Calibration and accuracy of claims distributions; quality and explainability of economic inventory-risk estimates; usefulness of physical-contract pricing decisions; repeatable model controls; measurable risk-adjusted inventory outcomes.

All your information will be kept confidential according to EEO guidelines.